Import volumes at the nation’s major container ports are expected to remain below previous year levels through the early fall of 2026, despite a technical year-over-year increase projected for May and June. According to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, the anticipated "growth" in the coming months is primarily a statistical anomaly caused by a significant downturn in trade during the same period last year. This volatility comes as the retail industry grapples with rising inflation, dampened consumer confidence, and a complex geopolitical landscape shaped by ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
The maritime logistics sector is currently navigating a period of profound transition. While the first half of 2026 shows a marginal cumulative increase in volume, the underlying data suggests a cooling demand for consumer goods. The NRF and Hackett Associates report highlights that while March saw a month-over-month rebound, the long-term forecast points toward a sustained contraction as retailers exercise extreme caution regarding inventory management and forward-looking procurement.
The Statistical Mirage of May and June
The projected year-over-year increases for May and June 2026—forecasted at 11.1% and 8.2% respectively—might initially suggest a robust recovery in the retail supply chain. However, industry experts caution that these figures are heavily skewed by the "base effect" from 2025. In April 2025, the sudden announcement of the "Liberation Day" tariffs sent shockwaves through the global trading community, leading to a precipitous drop in import activity during the late spring and early summer of that year.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, emphasized that the current growth metrics do not reflect a surge in consumer demand but rather a stabilization following a historic trough. Gold noted that with inflation trending upward and the conflict in Iran introducing fresh uncertainty into global energy markets and shipping routes, the momentum gained in the early second quarter is unlikely to be sustained into the latter half of the year.
The "Liberation Day" tariffs of 2025 served as a pivot point for U.S. trade policy, forcing many retailers to front-load cargo or seek alternative sourcing destinations outside of traditional Asian manufacturing hubs. The residual effects of those policy shifts continue to manifest in the 2026 data, making year-over-year comparisons particularly difficult to interpret without historical context.
Chronology of Trade Activity: 2024–2026
To understand the current trajectory of U.S. port volumes, it is essential to examine the sequence of events that have shaped the last two years of maritime commerce.
The 2024 Stability Period:
In 2024, U.S. ports handled a total of 25.5 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU). This period was characterized by a post-pandemic normalization of supply chains, with relatively steady consumer spending and manageable inflation levels.
The 2025 Tariff Shock:
The landscape shifted dramatically in April 2025 with the announcement of the "Liberation Day" tariffs. This policy move led to a significant contraction in imports as businesses adjusted to new cost structures. By the end of 2025, total annual imports had slipped to 25.4 million TEU, a 0.3% decrease from the previous year. While the percentage drop seemed minor, it represented a sharp reversal of the growth trends seen in early 2024.
The Early 2026 Landscape:
The first quarter of 2026 has been marked by seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical headwinds. February 2026 saw a typical lull due to Lunar New Year celebrations in Asia, compounded by severe weather patterns that delayed cargo arrivals at several West Coast gateways. March 2026 provided a brief respite, with ports handling 2.16 million TEU—a 13.6% increase from February and a modest 0.6% increase year-over-year.
The Mid-2026 Forecast:
Projections for the remainder of the year suggest a brief spike followed by a cooling period:
- April 2026: Projected at 2.13 million TEU (down 3.6% year-over-year).
- May 2026: Forecasted at 2.17 million TEU (up 11.1% year-over-year).
- June 2026: Forecasted at 2.13 million TEU (up 8.2% year-over-year).
- July 2026: Forecasted at 2.2 million TEU (down 7.8% year-over-year).
- August 2026: Forecasted at 2.19 million TEU (down 5.5% year-over-year).
- September 2026: Forecasted at 2.08 million TEU (down 1.3% year-over-year).
Analysis of Economic Drivers and Geopolitical Tensions
The primary driver of the expected decline in the third quarter is a weakening of forward demand. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, pointed out that retailers are currently caught between the need to maintain stock levels and the risk of over-inventorying in a high-interest-rate environment.
"Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening," Hackett stated. He further noted that stalling re-stocking efforts, combined with rising geopolitical tensions, are "increasingly clouding the outlook" for the peak shipping season.
The conflict in Iran has introduced a new layer of risk for global logistics. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy and container traffic, has seen increased volatility, leading to higher insurance premiums for carriers and potential rerouting of vessels. These additional costs are inevitably passed down the supply chain, contributing to the inflationary pressures mentioned by NRF leadership.
Furthermore, domestic economic factors in the United States are playing a significant role. Consumer confidence has been on a downward trend as the cost of living increases. While the labor market remains relatively tight, the "wealth effect" from housing and stock markets has begun to diminish, leading to a more conservative approach to discretionary spending on goods that typically drive import volumes, such as electronics, apparel, and home furnishings.
Regional Port Performance and Infrastructure
The Global Port Tracker monitors a diverse array of gateways across the United States, providing a comprehensive view of the nation’s trade health. The performance of these ports often reflects regional economic conditions and shifts in global shipping lanes.
On the West Coast, the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma continue to handle the lion’s share of trans-Pacific trade. These ports were the most heavily impacted by the Lunar New Year shutdowns and the subsequent March rebound. The Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach, specifically, have seen a concerted effort to improve efficiency through automation, yet they remain sensitive to shifts in manufacturing sentiment in China and Southeast Asia.
On the East Coast, ports including New York/New Jersey, the Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville have benefited from a gradual shift in cargo away from the West Coast to mitigate risk. However, these ports are more exposed to the logistical disruptions currently affecting Atlantic and Mediterranean routes due to the tensions in the Middle East.
The Gulf Coast, represented in the report by the Port of Houston, continues to see steady growth driven by energy-related exports and a growing regional population, though it is not immune to the broader national trend of softening consumer import demand.
Implications for the Retail Industry
The data suggests that the "Just-in-Time" inventory model remains under pressure, but the "Just-in-Case" surge seen during the 2021-2022 supply chain crisis has not returned. Instead, retailers are adopting a "Just-Enough" strategy. This cautious approach is a direct response to the high cost of capital; holding excess inventory is significantly more expensive in 2026 than it was three years ago.
If the forecasts for July, August, and September hold true, it would mark a lackluster "Peak Season"—the period when retailers typically bring in goods for the winter holiday shopping rush. A decline in TEU volume during these months suggests that retailers are either expecting a muted holiday season or have already positioned enough inventory to meet anticipated demand without further large-scale imports.
The stagnation of restocking efforts is a particular concern for economists. Usually, a period of declining imports is followed by a sharp restocking phase. However, if retailers continue to stall these efforts, it could lead to localized shortages or a lack of variety for consumers, further impacting retail sales figures toward the end of the year.
Future Outlook and Strategic Considerations
As the industry moves toward the second half of 2026, several key indicators will determine whether the import market can find a floor. The resolution or escalation of the conflict in Iran remains the largest external variable. Any significant disruption to maritime transit could force a rapid reassessment of import strategies, potentially leading to another round of front-loading if shippers fear a total closure of certain routes.
Domestically, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates will be critical. If inflation continues to rise as Gold suggests, the likelihood of rate cuts diminishes, keeping the cost of inventory financing high and discouraging a return to aggressive import volumes.
The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates will continue to monitor these trends through the Global Port Tracker. For now, the narrative is one of resilience tempered by extreme caution. While the total volume for the first half of 2026 is expected to reach 12.59 million TEU—a slight 0.5% increase over the first half of 2025—the industry is far from a state of robust growth. The "skewed" numbers of the early summer provide a temporary statistical lift, but the fundamental challenges of a volatile global economy remain the dominant force shaping the future of U.S. trade.
